This year’s total notebook shipments will drop by 0.2% YoY, and the CPU shortage may further impact the entire memory market as well, predicts TrendForce.
The precise reason behind the shortage of Intel CPUs is currently unclear because the problem simultaneously affects the newly arrived CPU product lines and product lines that have been in the market for some time. The affected products include the improved version of 14nm++ and product lines based on the 14nm+ Coffee Lake platform, explains TrendForce.
TrendForce estimates that the CPU supply gap in the notebook market has increased from around 5% in August to 5-10% in September. There is a possibility that the supply gap may extend to over 10% in 4Q18, and the shortage is expected to be resolved rather later in the first half of 2019.
DRAM prices are now approaching an inflection point after climbing for nine successive quarters, TrendForce adds. DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, previously estimated that the contract prices of PC DRAM products will drop by around 2% QoQ in the fourth quarter of 2018 as the market gradually shifts into oversupply. However, it is now possible that the price decline will become larger due the shortage of Intel CPUs and lower demand for notebooks and PC DRAM in a row.
On the other hand, the impact of the CPU shortage may also expand to the NAND Flash market. The insufficient supply would cause PC OEMs’ lower expectations of notebooks demand in the upcoming busy season, thus affecting the demand for SSD in the second half of this year. Therefore, TrendForce says it expects the SSD price decline to be steeper in the fourth quarter of 18 than in this quarter.
With regard to the server market, the migration from the Grantley to the Purley platform is currently taking place. According to TrendForce, a minority of server OEMs are experiencing longer lead time in the deliveries of Purley processors. This issue will be followed up because it will affect future server shipments if it becomes more widespread.
Moreover, both the NAND Flash and DRAM markets are much more vulnerable to the falling demand from the server application than from the PC or notebook application. Therefore, downward corrections of demand for server memory products will cause a steeper drop in quotations of memory products as a whole, TrendForce concludes.