Scenario 2050: lithium and cobalt might not suffice

Lithium and cobalt are fundamental components of present lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). However, cobalt-free battery technologies, including post-lithium technologies – which are based on non-critical elements, such as sodium, magnesium, zinc, calcium and aluminium – represent possibilities to decrease the dependency and avoid the criticality of lithium and co supplies in the long term.

Besides lithium as charge carrier, cobalt is a fundamental component of the cathode in present lithium-ion batteries, determining the high energy and power density, as well as the long lifetime.

However, the researchers have highlighted that this element is suffering from scarcity and toxicity issues. “In general, the rapidly growing market penetration of LIBs for electromobility applications, such as fully electric cars, will lead to an increasing demand for raw materials, especially with respect to lithium and cobalt,” explained Professor Stefano Passerini of HIU.

The research, a scenario-based analysis between now and 2050 for various battery applications, is said to highlight that the shortage and price increase of cobalt is likely to occur. This is due to likelihood that the demand for cobalt batteries will be twice as high as today’s identified reserves.

According to the researchers, today’s identified lithium reserves are expected to be much less strained. However, the production will have to be strong upscaled to match future demand.

The analysis also identified that both elements suffer from strong geographical concentration, in particular in countries which are reported to be less politically stable. This will apparently give rise to strong concerns regarding a potential shortage and price increase of LIB in the future. “It is therefore indispensable to expand the research activities towards alternative battery technologies in order to decrease these risks and reduce the pressure on cobalt and lithium reserves,” Daniel Buchholz of HIU said.

Passerini added: “Post-lithium systems are especially appealing for electromobility and stationary applications. This is why it is both very important and urgent to unlock their potential and develop these innovative, high-energy batteries towards market maturity.”

“The future availability of cobalt for the mass production of LIBs has to be classified as very critical, which is also evident from the price increase of cobalt higher than 120% within one year (2016-2017),” HIU system analyst, Dr. Marcel Weil, pointed out.

He emphasised the importance of battery recycling as a way to decrease this pressure on sourcing these critical materials.

The researchers stressed that new developments in battery technologies which are based on low-cost, abundant and non-toxic elements, is vital.

To address this, KIT and the University of Ulm have joined efforts in the proposal for a Cluster of Excellence Energy Storage Beyond Lithium: New Storage Concepts For A Sustainable Future, focusing on the development of sodium-ion, magnesium-ion and other batteries based on abundant materials.