“We have a lot of unknowns for 2017,” declared Aubrey Dunford, market analyst for ecsn. “What with Brexit, the Trump effect, European elections and the slowing Chinese economy. Our members remain confident, however, that there are opportunities to see further growth in 2017 despite the uncertainties.”
According to Dunford, the devaluation of the Pound against the US dollar and the Euro has seen some increase in prices, which in turn inflates the sales revenue. “UK based electronic equipment manufacturers are seizing the opportunities created by the competitive pricing of their goods in export markets.”
Total sales growth in 2016 has improved for afdec members relative to the prior year, with an unexpected 5% DTAM for the second quarter which has boosted 2016 DTAM growth to 3%.
2016 billings also did better than forecast, with a healthy second quarter. “There is always a dip in the second quarter but the dip was much less than we had anticipated which contributes to a good year overall,” said Dunford.
Semiconductors dominated the market in 2016 with a growth of 6.2% and are predicted to continue doing well the coming year.
ecsn believes there will be steady growth throughout 2017 with a strong first quarter, mainly driven by the expanding IoT and growing diversity of electronics applications.
Ecsn/afdec chairman Adam Fletcher claims the connected vehicle could be the global industry driver over the next five years. “The transition toward increased driver assistance is gaining huge momentum,” he predicted. “Fully autonomous vehicles, however, are probably further away than is generally acknowledged.”
ecsn also forecasts that the Book:Bill ratio will remain around unity until at least the second half of 2017. The midpoint forecast for DTAM predicts that passives will do best with a 3.0% growth.
“Mergers and acquisitions will continue next year,” Fletcher concluded. “But assuming there are no major macroeconomic shocks, the recovery cycle in the global electronic components markets will continue, with much stronger consistent growth likely for the rest of this decade.”
